El efecto del cambio estratégico en la supervivencia de los bancos privados españoles (1983-1997)

Zusammenfassung

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the strategic change on the likelihood of organizational extinction in the Spanish banking population. To this end, we propose and test two competitive hypotheses which are result of other two theoretical perspectives about the consequences of the strategic change: the adaptative view and the ecological approach. While from the former the strategic change has a positive effect on the likelihood of organizational survival, from the ecological approach, the strategic change implies an increase of the likelihood of organizational extinction. The sample used to test the two proposed hypotheses is the Spanish private bank population over the period 1983-1997. The results confirm the negative effect of the strategic change on the likelihood of organizational extinction, in line with the conclusions of the adaptive perspective. This paper includes two important methodological innovations: (i) the definition and measurement of the strategic change by using a new cluster algorithm, the MCLUST; and (ii) the control of the non-observable heterogeneity using panel data models for "logit" regression