Escenarios de Riesgo Sísmico tipo PAGER (USGS) aplicados a terremotos históricos en España

Abstract

The application of ShakeMap models to historical earthquakes has made it possible to obtain specific ground motion scenarios for this type of strong events (Silva et al., 2017). In this work we present the preliminary results of the application of the PAGER procedure: “Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response” (USGS). This methodology, based on seismic scenarios (ShakeMaps), allows to make an estimate of what will happen in terms of Seismic Risk (economic losses and fatalities; Jaiswal and Wald, 2010). The method is applied to historical events such as those of Torrevieja in 1829 (IX-X EMS-98 / X ESI-07) or Arenas del Rey in 1884 (IX-X EMS-98 / X ESI-07), which would be disastrous today due to the notable increase in vulnerability (urban expansion and population growth) that the study zones have suffered since the middle of the 20th century. The resulting economic losses for both earthquakes are not encouraging and indicate that the suggested earthquake response hold an inter- national level (red code) for most of the calculated scenarios. The expected damage scenarios are not even contemplated in Spanish building regulations, although only some of the examined scenarios anticipate fatalities in the order of 1000 persons, similar to those truly recorded in the historical events of the 19th century. The obtained results clearly indicate that at present the Spanish society is not prepared for this type of strong events that occurred in the past and will certainly occur in the future. This work has been funded by the QTECSPAIN project MINECO-FEDER CGL2015-67169-P, USAL.