Voto étnico en BoliviaCohesión, disgregación y clivajes étnicos
- Guzmán Prudencio, Guillermo 1
- Rodríguez-López, Fernando 2
- 1 Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Facultad de Derecho, Universidad de Salamanca. responsable de investigación socioeconómica, Centro de Investigaciones Sociales, Vicepresidencia del Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia
- 2 Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Facultad de Derecho, Universidad de Salamanca
ISSN: 1405-1060, 1685-2037
Year of publication: 2018
Volume: 25
Issue: 1
Pages: 65-100
Type: Article
More publications in: Política y gobierno
Abstract
We propose a theoretical framework to analyze from a quantitative point of view the devices that may have led to the emergence of ethnic voting in Bolivia. The first part provides a review of political and historical changes in recent years, which resulted in masand Evo Morales assuming the presidency. The second part presents the theoretical construct and then tests it through the estimation of a multinomial logit model on data from surveys referred to the latest four presidential elections. The main hypothesis is built from the basis of ethnic structure, and presents political discourse as a cohesive element against the action of ethnic-disruptive variables, therefore decisive for the emergence of relevant ethnic cleavages and the subsequent appearance of ethnic vote.