Monitoreo del riesgo de burbujas en los precios de la vivienda en Colombia

  1. Rendón-García, Juan Fernando 1
  2. Trespalacios- Carrasquilla, Alfredo 2
  3. Cano - Bedoya, Jonathan 3
  1. 1 Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano
    info

    Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano

    Medellín, Colombia

    ROR https://ror.org/03zb5p722

  2. 2 Universidad EAFIT
    info

    Universidad EAFIT

    Medellín, Colombia

    ROR https://ror.org/03y3y9v44

  3. 3 Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia
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Revue:
Cuadernos de Vivienda y Urbanismo

ISSN: 2145-0226,  2027-2103

Année de publication: 2019

Volumen: 12

Número: 24

Type: Article

DOI: 10.11144/JAVERIANA.CVU12-24.MRBP DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAccès ouvert editor

D'autres publications dans: Cuadernos de Vivienda y Urbanismo

Résumé

This work proposes a practical methodology for monitoring in real time the potential bubbles regarding the housing prices in Colombia. It is intended as an early warning system. The proposal is based on econometric models of time series under the assumption that a time series with bubbles shows sustained imbalance patterns concerning the speed and acceleration. The study is conducted with some methodologies not used before to deal with the housing market in Colombia and without including variables exogenous to the housing price indexes. The results indicate that the price indexes for used housing (PVU, Spanish acronym) in Colombia have been steady. No bubble pattern has been detected. However, in the last term under analysis (2013), the housing prices in Bogotá show a significant imbalance between the speed and acceleration.

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